21st Century Trends in International Tourism

By Peter Semone

Travel and tourism will grow to new heights in the 21st century as it becomes more accessible to a larger cross section of the global population. This will result in commensurate economic opportunities for developed and emerging destinations around the world.  It will also create major challenges, not only in attracting and serving increased tourism demand, but also in mitigating the numerous potential negative externalities that will emerge as a result of tourism’s rapid growth. Successful destinations will strike a balance in developing their tourism industries by monitoring international trends, engaging tourism stakeholders, ensuring that the benefits of tourism outweigh any potential negative impacts and pledging a more equitable distribution of tourism revenue. There is good reason for countries to focus on honing their abilities in tourism: it is a big business. According to the UNWTO, 846 million international visitor arrivals generated US$735 billion (US$2 billion/day) in tourism revenue in 2006.  Tourism represents 35 percent the world’s export of services and over 70 percent in the Least Development Countries. The UNWTO predicts that international tourism demand will double by 2020 to an astronomical 1.6 billion visitors generating nearly US$2 trillion in economic activity. Currently, the tourism industry is characterized by a variety of issues and trends, which present a range of inherent threats and opportunities.  These include, but are not necessarily limited to:  

•  There has been an increase in the perception of terrorist threats in many countries most graphically embodied in the Bali bombings in 2002 and 2005. There have also been subsequent terrorism scares and attacks in London, Glasgow, Madrid, Bangkok and other destinations. Well intended safety and security procedures and regulations are creating traveller inconvenience in the form of longer lines at airports and stricter visa policies and standards. 
• The notable growth of China into one of the largest source markets in the Asia Pacific region has become a primary focus of the world’s tourism industry. Chinese nationals have been increasingly visiting international destinations; a trend the industry widely agrees will continue to increase in the foreseeable future.  Equally phenomenal growth is also evident from the Indian outbound market.      
•  New destination branding campaigns from relative newcomers such as India, South Korea, New Zealand, Egypt, South Africa, Vietnam, Eastern Europe and the Philippines have been recently launched, adding increased competition to mainstay destinations such as Australia, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. 
• Technology such as the internet has made booking travel-related products easy and convenient, empowering the consumer to be less reliant upon the traditional tourism supply chain. This disintermediation opens many possibilities for consumer-direct marketing and distribution. 
•  In what many refer to as the emergence of a Leisure Society, tourism is seen as a basic right – as opposed to an activity for a privileged few – and has become widely accessible for a more diverse global demographic. The rise of low-cost airlines and cut-rate travel deals is fuelling a new wave of demand for tourism in the new millennium. A similar boom last occurred in the early 1970’s with the launch of the Boeing 747 and other technological advancements in transport creating a wave of mass international tourism demand by increasing affordability and access. 
• The emergence of sub-regional cooperative agreements in which neighbouring countries jointly market multi-nation itineraries in an attempt to increase the value and synergy for the tourist and the participating economies is on the rise. 
• Demand is rapidly increasing for niche tourism products that are customised to satisfy the tastes of an increasingly discerning traveller, particularly among business and affluent leisure travellers. Many of these new niches are narrowly defined, but should not be overlooked. 
• An increased awareness and consciousness among travellers of the social and environmental impacts of tourism which is fuelling a rapidly increasing interest in responsible, sustainable and green tourism.